Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Valuation Zones
Published 6/8/2026, 10:46:06 AM
An MVRV Z-Score of 1.1 does not signal an undervaluation zone; rather, it historically represents a Fair Value or Mid-Cycle phase. While a 1.1 level indicates that the market has cooled from "overvalued" peaks, it remains significantly above the "Deep Undervaluation" zones (Z-Scores < 0) that have historically marked cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Valuation Zones
Historically, the MVRV Z-Score—which measures the deviation of Market Cap from Realized Cap—categorizes Bitcoin's valuation into the following performance bands:
| Zone | MVRV Z-Score Range | Market Signal | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Undervaluation | < 0 | Cycle Bottom / Capitulation | 2015 (-0.58), 2018 (-0.46), 2022 (-0.31) |
| Accumulation | 0 to 1.0 | Undervalued / Early Recovery | Current June 2026 level (~0.24 - 0.41) |
| Fair Value | 1.0 to 3.0 | Mid-Cycle / Consolidation | 1.1 falls squarely in this range |
| Overvalued | 3.0 to 7.0 | Distribution / High Risk | Oct 2025 Peak (~4.2) |
| Extreme Top | > 7.0 | Cycle Peak / Euphoria | 2013 (9.9), 2017 (8.9) |
Analysis of the 1.1 Signal
- Not a Bottom Signal: Historical "iron bottoms" have exclusively occurred when the Z-Score dips below zero. At 1.1, the market price is still roughly one standard deviation above the aggregate cost basis (Realized Value) of all holders.
- Mid-Cycle Support: A level of 1.1 often acts as a "re-accumulation" support during bull runs. For example, in 2017, the Z-Score oscillated between 1.45 and 3.0 for months before the final parabolic move.
- Current Context (June 2026): With the current Z-Score at approximately 0.41 and Bitcoin trading near $61,700, a move to 1.1 would actually represent a recovery or increase in valuation from current local lows, rather than a deeper entry into an undervaluation zone.
Evidence Ledger Resolution
- c1 (1.1 as Undervaluation/Buy Zone): UNRESOLVED. The evidence directly contradicts this claim. Historical data shows that 1.1 is a neutral mid-cycle value, while true undervaluation occurs below a Z-Score of 0.
- c2 (1.1 as a Significant Floor): UNRESOLVED. Research indicates that while 1.1 can act as mid-cycle support, it is not the "significant floor" of the cycle. A true "iron bottom" for the current cycle might require a dip below 0, potentially targeting a price floor near $55,000 - $60,000 later in 2026.
Conclusion: 1.1 signals a healthy mid-cycle consolidation where "froth" has been removed, but the market is not yet in a state of extreme undervaluation or despair.
Next Steps:
- Monitor for Bottom: Would you like to set a recurring scan to alert you if the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score drops below 0?
- Technical Analysis: Should I perform a technical analysis to see if the $55,000 - $60,000 "iron bottom" price target aligns with current support levels?