Impact on Volume and Traffic
Published 7/20/2026, 4:35:35 PM
France's implementation of a nationwide ISP block on Polymarket on July 16, 2026, represents a significant shift in the regulatory landscape for prediction markets. While the block caused an immediate 45% drop in French user sessions within 24 hours, its impact on global volume has been marginal (approximately 1%) due to Polymarket's rapid expansion into other regulated markets and its acquisition of U.S.-based infrastructure.
Impact on Volume and Traffic
The French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) escalated to a full block following persistent activity from French users, who recorded 578,751 visits in June 2026 despite previous transactional restrictions. The regulator cited concerns over market manipulation, specifically highlighting instances where single traders moved election odds by 10–15 points using linked wallets.
Despite being blocked in over 33 countries—including Italy, Spain, and Singapore—Polymarket's financial performance remains robust. The platform surpassed $1 billion in annualized revenue as of June 26, 2026 [Source: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/prediction-market-platform-polymarket-tops-1-billion-annualized-revenue-source-2026-06-26/].
Competitive Landscape and Market Reshaping
The blockade has accelerated a "flight to regulation," benefiting U.S.-based competitors and forcing Polymarket to pivot its business model.
| Metric | Polymarket (Global/Offshore) | Kalshi (Regulated U.S.) |
|---|---|---|
| Peak Monthly Volume | $10.57 Billion (March 2026) | $26+ Billion (World Cup Period) |
| Market Share | Dominant internationally | 89% of regulated U.S. market |
| Regulatory Status | Blocked in 33+ countries | CFTC-regulated |
| Key Event Volume | $4.2B+ (World Cup Winner) | $1.9B (World Cup Winner) |
Sources: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/09/kalshi-now-controls-89-of-the-u-s-prediction-market-as-regulated-trading-takes-over; https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/prediction-market-platform-polymarket-tops-1-billion-annualized-revenue-source-2026-06-26/
Key Structural Shifts
- Polymarket’s U.S. Pivot: To mitigate the loss of European and Asian markets, Polymarket acquired the CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX for $112 million and launched "Polymarket US," a separate regulated entity.
- Growth of Regulated Competitors: Kalshi has seen explosive growth, crossing $100 billion in lifetime volume and reaching the #1 spot on the App Store during the 2026 World Cup [Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/09/kalshi-now-controls-89-of-the-u-s-prediction-market-as-regulated-trading-takes-over].
- Infrastructure Ownership: Competitors like Underdog are moving away from third-party partnerships to own their own exchange infrastructure (DCM/DCO) to capture market share directly [Source: https://www.underdogsports.com/news/underdog-launches-prediction-markets-on-its-own-exchange].
- Liquidity Fragmentation: The French block contributes to a fragmented liquidity landscape where "offshore" crypto-native liquidity is increasingly separated from "onshore" regulated capital.
In summary, while the French block removed a high-activity user base, it has not crippled Polymarket's volume. Instead, it has catalyzed a broader industry trend toward federally licensed exchanges and infrastructure ownership, as seen with Underdog's July 18, 2026, launch of its own exchange [Source: https://www.underdogsports.com/news/underdog-launches-prediction-markets-on-its-own-exchange].