Price Action Analysis
Published 11/19/2025, 9:20:08 AM
I've completed the technical analysis for Monero (XMR). Here is a multi-timeframe breakdown based on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts as of November 19, 2025, 09:10 UTC.
Price Action Analysis
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4-Hour Chart (Mid-Term View):
- Monero is in a confirmed downtrend, with the price trading significantly below its key moving averages (9, 21, and 50-period EMAs).
- The last candle close was at $368.31, indicating sustained selling pressure over the past several sessions.
- The price is currently below the 50-EMA ($395.36), which is a strong sign of bearish control in the medium term.
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1-Hour Chart (Short-Term View):
- The short-term trend is also strongly bearish. The price action shows a steep decline, with the price consistently staying below the 9-EMA ($377.22).
- The RSI is in oversold territory, which can sometimes precede a short-term bounce or consolidation period before the next leg down.
Technical Indicators Summary
| Indicator | 4-Hour Chart (as of 08:00 UTC) | 1-Hour Chart (as of 09:00 UTC) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $368.31 | $368.31 | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 37.37 | 28.72 | Bearish, approaching oversold on 4H, Oversold on 1H |
| MACD | Histogram: -4.92 | Histogram: -4.13 | Strong Bearish Momentum on both timeframes |
| EMA (9) | $390.34 | $377.22 | Acting as immediate resistance |
| EMA (21) | $398.17 | $388.92 | Acting as secondary resistance |
| EMA (50) | $395.36 | $398.92 | Reinforces bearish trend |
Support & Resistance Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $377.22 (1-hour 9-EMA). A break above this level could signal a short-term pause in the downtrend.
- Next Resistance: $388.92 - $390.34 (1-hour 21-EMA and 4-hour 9-EMA). This is a significant resistance zone to watch.
- Immediate Support: The recent low around $368.00. A sustained break below this level would open the door for further downside.
Trading Strategy
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For New Traders:
- The current market structure is strongly bearish. It is advisable to wait for signs of a trend reversal, such as the price reclaiming the 4-hour 21-EMA ($398.17) or a clear bullish divergence on the RSI, before considering a long position.
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For Active Traders:
- Bearish Scenario (Short): Look for opportunities to enter short positions on a retest of resistance levels. An entry near the 1-hour 9-EMA ($377) with a stop-loss placed above the 1-hour 21-EMA (~$389) could be a potential setup.
- Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Long): Given the oversold RSI on the 1-hour chart, a high-risk counter-trend scalp could be considered if the price shows signs of bottoming. A confirmation would be the price breaking and holding above the 1-hour 9-EMA ($377.22). This would be a very short-term trade.
Conclusion
The technical outlook for Monero is bearish on both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes. The price is in a clear downtrend with strong downward momentum. While the oversold RSI on the 1-hour chart might offer a brief relief bounce, the overall trend remains to the downside until key resistance levels are broken.