Arbitrum unlocks and project vulnerability analysis
Published 10/9/2025, 8:35:51 AM
Arbitrum is indeed unlocking a substantial amount of tokens, specifically 92.65 million ARB tokens valued at approximately $43.91 million, representing 2.08% of its circulating supply, on August 16, 2025.
Based on the information available regarding upcoming token unlocks, the projects most vulnerable to similar unlocks are LAYEY and CYBER.
Why LAYEY and CYBER are most vulnerable:
- High Percentage of Circulating Supply Unlocked: Both LAYEY and CYBER are noted to be unlocking over 10% of their circulating supply. This is a significantly higher percentage compared to Arbitrum's 2.08% and other projects mentioned in the same period (FTN at 2.13%, APT at 2.25%, AVAX at 0.33%, and SEI at 1.22%).
- Increased Selling Pressure: When a large percentage of a token's circulating supply is unlocked, it introduces a substantial amount of new tokens into the market. If a significant portion of these newly unlocked tokens are sold by early investors or team members, it can create considerable selling pressure, potentially leading to a price decline. This effect is amplified when the unlocked amount represents a large fraction of the existing circulating supply.
Therefore, while Arbitrum's unlock is notable, LAYEY and CYBER face a higher degree of vulnerability due to the much larger proportion of their circulating supply entering the market.