Will the FIFA World Cup Drive Prediction Markets
Published 6/11/2026, 3:19:17 PM
Short answer: No — for the World Cup specifically. The $10B annual threshold is already far exceeded ($63.5B in 2025), but World Cup-specific volume is forecast at only ~$2.5 billion — $7.5 billion short of $10B.
Annual Volume: Already Exceeded $10B
The $10B mark is not a future target — it was dramatically surpassed in 2025.
| Year | Total Prediction Market Volume |
|---|---|
| 2025 | $63.5 billion |
| 2026 (projected) | $325 billion (YTD run-rate) |
The 2025 figure represents roughly 400% year-over-year growth, and the 2026 trajectory points to continued expansion, with combined platform volume reaching approximately $25 billion by April 2026.
World Cup-Specific Volume: Forecast Is Only $2.5B
The 2026 FIFA World Cup (June 11 – July 20, ~40 days) is generating significant activity but is projected to fall $7.5 billion short of a $10B event-specific target:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Polymarket World Cup Winner market (as of June 11, 2026) | $1.884 billion |
| All 35 Polymarket World Cup markets combined | $1.48 billion |
| DeFi Rate forecast (both Polymarket + Kalshi) | ~$2.5 billion total |
The combined forecast of $2.5B across both platforms contradicts any claim that the World Cup alone will drive $10B in volume.
Platform Breakdown (May 2026)
| Platform | May 2026 Volume | Month-over-Month Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $17.91 billion | +21% (9th consecutive record) |
| Polymarket | $7.08 billion | -21% from March peak ($10.57B) |
Sports contracts dominate both platforms (~80–90% of volume), yet even combined, the World Cup forecast remains at $2.5B.
Key Distinction: Annual vs. Event-Specific
The confusion in some reporting conflates two distinct questions:
- Will prediction markets reach $10B annually? ✅ Already achieved in 2025 ($63.5B)
- Will the World Cup drive $10B in volume? ❌ Forecast suggests only $2.5B
Risk Factors
- Regulatory uncertainty: Nevada, Arizona, and 12+ states are suing platforms over sports event contracts
- Market manipulation concerns: Allegations of coordinated trading and astroturfed promotional content
- Polymarket user base: Some sources report declining monthly active users, though figures are unverified
- Perpetual futures rollout: Polymarket Perps launched in limited beta (May 28, 2026) with gradual access expansion — impact on volume unclear
Conclusion
The $10B annual volume threshold is not only feasible but already a historical milestone ($63.5B in 2025). However, the World Cup will not drive $10B in volume — current forecasts put combined platform activity at roughly $2.5B, making the $10B World Cup-specific target unrealistic for this event.
The World Cup will likely become the largest single sporting event in prediction market history, but it will fall significantly short of $10B in event-specific volume.
What Remains Open
- Whether Kalshi's continued growth (+21% MoM) and new sports partnerships (NHL official partner alongside Polymarket) will meaningfully shift World Cup volume upward
- Regulatory outcomes from the multi-state lawsuits, which could restrict US-market volume during the tournament
- Impact of Polymarket Perps on total volume, if rolled out broadly before July
Data sources: NEXT.io Report ($63.5B annual), DeFi Rate ($2.5B World Cup forecast), Polymarket market data ($1.884B World Cup Winner), combined platform volumes (Kalshi $17.91B / Polymarket $7.08B in May 2026).
Suggested next steps:
- Monitor Kalshi vs. Polymarket volume split during the tournament — if Kalshi's momentum continues, a revised combined forecast above $2.5B becomes plausible
- Track regulatory developments in the multi-state lawsuit, as adverse rulings could restrict Kalshi's US sports volume mid-tournament