Token Unlock Supply Shock Analysis: ~$143M in June
Published 6/13/2026, 2:01:24 PM
The $143M in upcoming token unlocks spans multiple projects with vastly different supply shock severities. The most critical risk comes from WET (HumidiFi), which faces an unprecedented 111.59% supply increase — more tokens unlocking than currently exist in circulation.
Tier 1: Critical Severity (>10% Supply Increase)
| Rank | Token | Unlock Amount | Value | % of Circulating Supply | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WET (HumidiFi) | 260M WET | $14.36M | 111.59% | June 16 |
| 2 | HOME | 750M HOME | $37.03M | 19.56% | June 17 |
| 3 | ME (Magic Eden) | 170M ME | $10.88M | 30.77% | June 17 |
| 4 | RED (RedStone) | 41M RED | $3.99M | 10.03% | June 29 |
WET's 111.59% unlock is the standout risk: recipients include Foundation (106.67M), Labs (83.33M), and Ecosystem (66.67M). This means the circulating supply could more than double in a single event.
Tier 2: High Severity (5–10% Supply Increase)
| Token | Unlock Amount | Value | % of Supply | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB (BounceBit) | 30M BB | $615.6K | 7.31% | June 14 |
| WCT (WalletConnect) | 13M WCT | $561.7K | 6.78% | June 22 |
Tier 3: Moderate Severity (1–5% Supply Increase)
| Token | Unlock Amount | Value | % of Supply | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE (Hyperliquid) | 9.9M HYPE | $596.4M | 4.46% | TODAY |
| MOVE | 160M MOVE | $1.96M | 4.29% | June 16 |
| BABY (Babylon) | 140M BABY | $2.41M | 3.69% | June 17 |
| IO (io.net) | 13M IO | $1.91M | 3.84% | June 18 |
| PEAQ | 85M PEAQ | $1.96M | 3.82% | June 19 |
| APT (Aptos) | 11M APT | $7.63M | 1.38% | June 19 |
| ARB (Arbitrum) | 93M ARB | $7.52M | 1.48% | June 23 |
| STRK (Starknet) | 130M STRK | $4.15M | 2.00% | June 22 |
Key Findings
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Worst by percentage: WET at 111.59% — an extreme single-event dilution risk unmatched by any other unlock.
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Largest by dollar value: HYPE (Hyperliquid) at $596.4M unlocks today, representing 4.46% of supply. Despite lower percentage dilution, the absolute dollar value is ~40x larger than any other unlock this period.
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High dilution + high value combo: HOME ($37M, 19.56%) and ME ($10.9M, 30.77%) both face significant percentage dilution alongside meaningful dollar amounts.
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Routine large-cap unlocks: APT ($7.6M, 1.38%) and ARB ($7.5M, 1.48%) represent standard monthly unlocks for established Layer 1/2 projects — typically well-anticipated and priced in.
Risk Assessment Summary
| Severity | Criteria | Tokens |
|---|---|---|
| 🔴 CRITICAL | >10% supply increase | WET, HOME, ME, RED |
| 🟠 HIGH | 5–10% supply increase | BB, WCT |
| 🟡 MODERATE | 1–5% supply increase | HYPE, MOVE, BABY, IO, PEAQ, APT, ARB, STRK |
Historical data suggests 90% of token unlocks lead to negative price movement. Tokens with poor liquidity and high % of market cap unlocks face the most pressure.
What remains open: The unlock schedules and percentages are based on aggregated data; individual project announcements should be verified for exact timing and recipient allocations before trading decisions.
Suggested Next Steps
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Monitor WET liquidity depth — Given the 111.59% supply shock, checking order book depth and exchange listings before June 16 would clarify actual sell pressure risk.
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Set price alerts for HYPE — The $596.4M unlock today is the largest absolute value event; monitoring post-unlock price action could inform broader market sentiment on large token releases.